高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略评价——以甘南高原为例

气候变化加剧了高寒生态脆弱区农户的生计脆弱性,为应对气候变化,农户已采取了各种响应措施,当前急需评估农户所采取适应策略的效果,以便选择更有效的适应策略。以甘南高原为研究区,基于入户调查数据分析了农户所采取适应策略的特征,采用模糊综合评价法分析现行适应策略的效果,并利用多准则决策模型确定了最优的气候变化适应策略。结果显示:(1)甘南高原农户多采取组合型策略应对气候变化,尤以调整+扩张型策略为主;(2)甘南高原农户所采取气候变化适应策略的效果较好,效益指数为3.43。其中,农区农户的适应策略效果最好、半农半牧区次之、纯牧区最差;(3)甘南高原不同区域农户筛选的最优策略存在差异。其中,纯牧区和半农半牧区农户筛选的最优策略为调整农牧业结构,而农区农户为完善农牧业基础设施。最后,提出了提高农户适应策略效果的对策建议及未来研究中需进一步关注的问题。     

基于生态系统管理理论的海域集约利用评价——以河北沿海地级市为例

基于生态系统管理理论,从海洋投入强度、海洋利用强度、海洋经济效益及海洋生态环境质量层面,构建海域集约利用评价的指标体系,运用模糊决策分析理论计算各指标权重,得到河北省沿海地级市2005—2014年的海域集约利用综合指数,并利用聚类分析法及协调度指数对河北省海域集约利用的区域差异特征进行了分析。研究结果表明:2005—2014年河北省海域集约利用综合水平不断提高,除海洋生态环境质量准则层指数呈下降趋势外,海洋投入强度、海洋利用强度、海洋经济效益3个层面指数均呈上升趋势,其中持续增加趋势最明显的是海洋经济效益准则层;河北省沿海三市海域集约利用综合指数及各准则层指数的时序变化特征基本一致,但各区域之间仍体现着不同的变化特点,沧州市海域集约利用程度较高,唐山市海域集约利用经历了由低到高的过程,秦皇岛市海域集约利用的状况整体处于一般水平;河北省及沿海三市海域集约利用总体保持了较高的协调度,但各地区不同时段的变化特征有所不同。     

基于熵权模糊物元模型的我国省域森林生态安全研究

近年来随着经济社会的快速发展,森林资源锐减和生态环境恶化等问题日益威胁到人们的生产生活,在建设生态文明的背景下研究我国省域森林生态安全状况,是关系国计民生和可持续发展的重要议题。在整理现有生态安全研究体系的基础上,独创性地提出森林生态安全压力-承压模型,应用SPSS、EXCEL等软件,通过主成分分析、熵权法和物元分析等手段对2014年我国31个省级行政单位的森林生态安全水平进行实证研究。结果表明:在压力方面,19个省级行政单位承受了较大森林生态安全压力;在承压方面,12个省级行政单位的承压能力较强;在综合评价方面,14个省级行政单位的森林生态安全水平较高。在深入探讨分析评价结果的同时,为提高我国森林生态安全水平提出对策和建议。     

Modeling habitat distribution of Cornus officinalis with Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics in China

Aims Predicting suitable habitat distribution is an effective way to protect rare or endangered medicinal plants. Cornus officinalis is a perennial tree growing in forest edge and its air-dried pericarp is one of the traditional Chinese medicines (TCM) with significant medicinal values. In recent years, C. officinalis has undergone severe degeneration of its natural habitat owing to growing market demands and unprecedented damage to the forests. Moreover, the degeneration of suitable habitat has threatened the supply of medicinal materials, and even led to the extinction of some engendered medicinal plant species. In this case, there is a great risk to introduce and cultivate medicinal plants if planners determine the suitable cultivation regions based on personal subjective experience alone. Therefore, predicting suitable potential habitat distribution of medicinal plants (e.g. C. officinalis) and revealing the environmental factors determining such distribution patterns are important to habitat conservation and environmental restoration.Methods In this article, we report the results of a study on the habitat distribution of C. officinalis using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling and fuzzy logics together with loganin content and environmental variables. The localities of 106 C. officinalis in China were collected by our group and other researchers and used as occurrence data. The loganin content of 234 C. officinalis germplasm resources were tested by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and used as content data. 79 environmental variables were selected and processed with multicollinearity test by using Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r) to determine a set of independent variables. The chosen variables were then processed in the fuzzy linear model according to the cell values (maximum, minimum) of localities with estimated loganin content. The SDMtoolbox was used to spatially rarefy occurrence data and prepare bias files. Furthermore, combined Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics were used to predict the suitable habitat of C. officinalis. The modeling result was validated using null-model method.Important findings As a result, six environmental factors including tmin3, prec3, bio4, alt, bio12 and bio3 were determined as key influential factors that mostly affected both the habitat suitability and active ingredient of C. officinalis. The highly suitable regions of C. officinalis mainly distribute in a 'core distribution zone' of the east-central China. The statistically significant AUC value indicated that combined Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics could be used to predict the suitable habitat distribution of medicinal plants. Furthermore, our results confirm that ecological factors played critical roles in assessing suitable geographical regions as well as active ingredient of plants, highlighting the need for effective habitat rehabilitation and resource conservation.     

基于模糊c-均值聚类法的绿洲农田精确管理分区研究

以新疆绿洲棉区为研究对象,将176个土壤耕层属性数据作为变量进行精确管理分区研究.模糊c-均值聚类法被用来进行分区,采用c-φ多次组合法来确定适宜的模糊控制参数.研究区最佳分区数为4,模糊指数为1.5,平均混乱度指数为0.17,不同模糊类别交叠程度小,地理空间上土壤的隶属关系相对明确.为了评价分区结果的合理性,对各管理分区土壤数据进行常规性统计,并用LSR法进行各分区间差异显著性检验,结果表明:各管理分区土壤属性的变异系数都较分区前全研究区有所减小,分区间土壤属性差异显著.通过选取适宜的模糊控制参数,模糊c-均值聚类法可以较好地进行管理分区划分,分区结果可以作为变量施肥的单独作业单元进行耕作管理.     

Plant cover estimation based on the beta distribution in grassland vegetation

Cover is the most frequently used measure of abundance in vegetation surveys of grasslands, and various qualitative and semi-quantitative methods have been developed for visual estimation of this metric. Field survey is usually made with a point-grid plate. The frequency distributions of cover derived from point-grid counts follow a beta distribution. Combining point-grid counts from a field survey and the beta distribution for a statistical analysis, we developed an effort-saving cover-measurement method. Cover is measured with a transparent plastic plate on which, for example, 10 × 10 = 100 points are arranged in a lattice with 1-cm grid spacing (thus, one point count represents 1 cm² of cover). N quadrats are set out at randomly dispersed sites in a grassland, and, in each, the plastic plate is used for making counts. The number of grid points located above a given species is counted in every quadrat until the number of counted points reaches a given value c, which is determined in advance. If the number of counted points reaches c in a quadrat, the count is stopped and the quadrat is classified in the category “>c”. In quadrats where c is not attained, full point counts above the species bodies are made. Let g be the number of observed quadrats whose cover is ≤c. Using these g cover measurements and the number of quadrats (N − g) with cover >c, we can quantitatively estimate cover for each species and the spatial pattern index value based on the maximum likelihood method. In trial counts using this method, the time savings varied between 5% and 41%, depending on the shape of the cover frequency distribution. The mean cover value estimates agreed well with conventional measures without a stopping point (i.e., based on full counts of all points in each quadrat).     

The Cultural Relics Distribution Characteristics Along the Canal Line and Appraisal of its Influence by the Middle Route Project for Water Transferring from South to North China

Assessments of the impacts of environmental hazards on ecological systems and human health have become a subject of ever-increasing importance. In this work, we extend current ecological hazard evaluation to the problem of protecting cultural relics from hazards attributable to the presence of a large-scale canal system being planned in China. The development and utilization of water resources must be closely combined with the preservation of cultural relics. The Middle Route Project for Water Transfer from South to North China (MRWT) is a current example. In this paper, the engineering background of this project is briefly introduced. The distribution of cultural relics related to it is also summarized in terms of different geographical divisions. An influence index E = f(L, δh, k, I, v, s) is introduced to measure the comprehensive effect of the canal on cultural relics. Because this function is really established at the preconstruction stage, it is treated by use of fuzzy mathematics. Each cultural relic has its own E value. Cultural relics with E values greater than 0.75 should be paid high attention, while those with E less than 0.5 may generally be ignored. What must be preserved through use of engineering measures are cultural relics with E values greater than 0.9. As to those cultural relics with E ranging between 0.5 and 0.75, whether they should be preserved with engineering controls depends upon practical circumstances specific to each relic.     

Home Range Size and Use in Allocebus trichotis in Analamazaotra Special Reserve, Central Eastern Madagascar

No information is currently available on the space needs of hairy-eared dwarf lemurs (Allocebus trichotis), classified as Data Deficient. The data are crucial for their conservation and comparison with other nocturnal primates. I conducted the first radiotracking study of the species from January to December 2007 in the Analamazaotra Special Reserve of Central Eastern Madagascar. I used nocturnal focal individual follows and daytime nest locations to determine home ranges. I followed 1 full sleeping group (4 adults) for 8 mo and 1 partial sleeping group (2 females) for 3 mo. Group home ranges, calculated via 100% minimum convex polygons (MCP), were 35.5 ha and 16.0 ha, respectively. The 95% kernel method of analysis yielded group home ranges of 15.2 ha and 7.1 ha respectively. The mean home range size for individuals was 15.4 ha (MCP) and 5.4 ha (kernel). This is much larger than for other Cheirogaleidae and could be due to a more insectivorous diet or the use of patchily distributed gum-producing trees. There were small nonsignificant monthly variations in home range size. The mean home range size per individual per month was 5.2 ha (MCP) and 2.2 ha (kernel). Important individual differences in overall and monthly home range size could be due to variations in the individual reproductive cycles and survival strategies. Overlap analyses and the lack of sexual difference in home range size suggest the social unit is a family or multimale/multifemale sleeping group with monogamous or promiscuous mating. The Analamazaotra Special Reserve probably holds ca. 100 adult individuals. Additional research is urgently needed to clarify the habitat needs of this rare species.     

Hazard function for cancer patients and cancer cell dynamics

The aim of the paper is to develop a procedure for an estimate of an analytical form of a hazard function for cancer patients. Although a deterministic approach based on cancer cell population dynamics yields the analytical expression, it depends on several parameters which should be estimated. On the other hand, a kernel estimate is an effective nonparametric method for estimating hazard functions. This method provides the pointwise estimate of the hazard function. Our procedure consists of two steps: in the first step we find the kernel estimate of the hazard function and in the second step the parameters in the deterministic model are obtained by the least squares method. A simulation study with different types of censorship is carried out and the developed procedure is applied to real data.     

模糊线性回归模型在河流水体总氮浓度预测中的应用

以湘江熬洲断面为例,将该断面水体中总氮浓度及其有关影响因子用三角模糊数来表征.同时,结合己有的模糊线性回归模型成果,构造了带有三角模糊参数的水体中总氮浓度模糊线性回归预测模型.并应用所建模型预测该断面水体中2002-2005年总氮浓度,所得的预测值与已有的实测值之间的相对误差均小于20%,完全满足实际应用对误差的要求,预测合格率为100%,说明这种预测模型在预测河流水体总氮浓度变化中有一定的实用性,为今后开展河流水体中污染物浓度预测提供了新途径.